[55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. The generic ballot a question in which survey respondents are asked which party they prefer for Congress without providing names of individual candidates has proven to be a useful tool for explaining the national outcomes of House and Senate elections. View live updates on electoral votes by state for presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump on ABC News. Hover over a district for more information. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. . As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority.[1]. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. November 7:Toss-up races projected. Louisiana primaries are held on Election Day. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . The darker the square, the greater the likelihood this will occur. Notice any bugs or missing polls? For those who are really into the numbers, Platinum Members can review demographic crosstabs and a full history of our data. Forecasts from outside this range can easily be generated by extrapolating from those shown in the table. A recent article by Seth Moskowitz in the Crystal Ball showed that polls on the generic ballot question, while not perfect, generally give a good indication of the national popular vote in recent U.S. House elections. The average MOV of in the U.S. House was 28.9 percentage points, the second smallest margin since 2012, and up slightly from 28.8 percentage points in 2020. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Because of the large impact of seat exposure in Senate elections, even a small advantage on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the upper chamber. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. The district runs from just . Its a busy time for collecting polls. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. The figures shown are total numbers. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. Welcome to 338Canada Quebec! The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in Tennessee was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Tennessee, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts.The elections coincide with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. All rights reserved. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. -- There are currently slated to be 18 Republicans in Biden seats and just 5 KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- After overestimating Republican performance in 2022, we wanted to give a short explanation to readers about our thinking in the run-up to the election. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. Despite their extremely narrow majorities, the forecasts in Table 3 show that Democrats have a reasonable chance of keeping control of both chambers in the midterm elections if they maintain at least a narrow lead on the generic ballot. This is the highest rate of congressional incumbents facing contested primaries since at least 2014 and is at least the fourth consecutive cycle where this rate has increased from the previous cycle. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. Gibbs unofficially withdrew from his primary after announcing his retirement on April 9, 2022. All rights reserved. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. If we assume that redistricting will be worth an additional 10 House seats to the GOP, Democrats would likely need a lead of at least 10 points on the generic ballot in order to maintain control of the lower chamber. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. I've collected a few races I think you should keep your eyeon. Forty-four (44) states adopted congressional district maps. All Rights Reserved. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. Forecasts based on this range of generic ballot results are displayed in Table 3. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. See how many seats Republicans or Democrats have gained or lost. Apply today! Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The candidate of Labour Party, Thaddeus Attah, has been declared the winner of the Eti-Osa Federal Constituency seat in the House of Representatives. Six states were apportioned one U.S. House district, so no congressional redistricting was required. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. Full election results. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). You can also view these ratings as a table. Will it be a close race or, um, not? The state court then issued an order establishing new candidate filing deadlines. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. Alan I. Abramowitz is the Alben W. Barkley Professor of Political Science at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabatos Crystal Ball. Democratic Rep. Cindy Axne survived 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying her Des Moines-based district. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. But 2022 will be a steeper climb. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. A lead of that magnitude would predict a Republican gain of one seat in the House and a Democratic gain of two seats in the Senate giving Democrats a 221-214 seat majority in the House and a 52-48 seat majority in the Senate. When candidates from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties run for a U.S. House seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. We default to the Deluxe . His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. [56][57], The following table displays candidates who have qualified for the Young Guns Vanguard program for the 2022 election cycle. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. This web site is a creation of Philippe J. Fournier, physics and astrophysics professor at Cgep de Saint-Laurent in Montreal. By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. By Leke Baiyewu. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. 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